Six years on, future of Iraq still uncertain
Iraq today marks the sixth anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s Baath regime, but the country’s future remains uncertain, with serious questions over whether Iraqi forces will manage to successfully take over security from withdrawing U.S. troops.
With U.S. President Barack Obama’s plans to pullout, an end to a costly war is now in sight. The war-torn country has experienced a dramatic decline in the death toll since early 2008, raising hopes for a more secure Iraq. At the same time, continuing insurgent attacks, a brewing sectarian conflict and unstable governance reveal the risks awaiting the country.
Many Turkish experts and academics think Iraq will be forced to confront serious problems in various areas, while others are more optimistic about Iraq’s future, believing it ultimately will be better than the period of occupation. But they all agree that Turkey will enjoy a more important role concerning its neighbor.
“U.S. troop withdrawal will not eliminate existing problems in Iraq, such as the sectarian clashes,” İlhan Üzgel, a political scientist from Ankara University, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review yesterday. Üzgel said sectarian divisions would continue, but added that the rift will not be on the same scale as in 2005 and 2006.
Hüseyin Bağcı, an international relations professor from Middle East Technical University agreed, adding that Iraq is certain to see sectarian and political conflicts after a possible U.S. withdrawal. But he also said the United States and NATO are cooperating to educate Iraqi security forces. “There will be a noteworthy improvement in Iraq’s security,” he said.
“Iraq will confront a serious trauma after U.S. troop withdrawal,” said veteran Turkish diplomat İnal Batu. “However, no situation can be worse than a U.S. invasion under the leadership of George W. Bush.”
“I do not believe that Iraq will encounter serious problems in maintaining security in the upcoming period,” said Serkan Taflıoğlu, a Middle East expert from the Eurasia Strategic Studies Center, as he pointed to the existence of a 600,000-strong police force in the Iraqi army. Taflıoğlu said he believes Baghdad will boost and centralize its authorities, including its role in the establishment of security.
“A full democratization of Iraq might take decades or it might even never be accomplished,” said Üzgel, as he emphasized a more cautious tone. “First of all, an allegiance primarily based on ethnic and religious identity should come to an end if a viable democracy is to be established.”
“It is too early to predict the future of Iraq,” said İlter Türkmen, a retired ambassador and former minister of foreign affairs. “We have to wait and see whether it will be a scenario of heaven or hell for Iraq.”
Experts and academics said a clear departure of a harsh U.S. rhetoric thanks to the new Obama administration has been helpful. “Democrats and Republicans do not differ in terms of the basics of U.S. foreign policy, while they differ in the methods they use to handle foreign policy,” Taflıoğlu said. “This is exactly what we are experiencing under Obama.”
Experts agreed that Turkey will enhance its role regarding Iraq and will also be a key strategic player in the region for Washington.
Turkey’s new role
Üzgel said that in any case relations between the two neighbors would improve. “Turkey will fill the vacuum left by the Americans,” he said. “Turkey, as an impartial, Muslim country and as a member of NATO, will probably undertake the responsibility of modernizing the Iraqi army in the forthcoming period,” said Taflıoğlu, in tandem with Üzgel’s remarks.
“The fact that Obama is coming to Turkey shortly after his election reveals the crucial role that the United States attaches to Turkey,” said Soli Özel, an international relations professor at Bilgi University.
Özel said the new Obama administration will probably align mutual interests with Turkey and will seek to understand Turkey’s plans and policies in the region. Bağcı agreed, saying the major reason behind Obama’s expected visit is the future of Iraq.
Source: Hurriyet
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